Learn · updated 31 Oct 2026
Risk controls for prediction-market bots
Rule on each order before it reaches the venue. Nevarn describes every live prediction-market buy — market, direction, size, the price and how stale it is, collateral, open positions — to Decionis, an independent execution authority. Only a proceed ruling releases the trade; refuse, refer and hold stop it, and an unreachable authority means refused.
What the authority sees
Before a live order is placed, Nevarn assembles a description of the trade: the market, the direction, the size, the price it is seeing and how stale that price is, the collateral, and the open positions. Decionis rules on that description.
The authority never sees raw identifiers. Wallet addresses, account references, balances and timestamps are replaced with consistent stand-ins before the description leaves Nevarn — enough to judge the trade, and no more.
An approval binds one exact trade
When an approved instruction reaches the venue it is re-checked against the approval it carries. Change any parameter — the size, the price, the market — and it no longer matches, so a bot cannot spend an approval on a different order.
Where the gate is armed today
Buying and deliberate cash-out in Nevarn's prediction-market lane answer to the execution authority. The automatic redemption and settlement paths do not yet, and Nevarn says so on its technology page rather than implying full coverage.
Referred trades land in a review queue a person can act on — releases, rejections, an audit trail.
Questions people ask
Is an order on a stale price refused?
Yes. If the execution authority cannot be reached or the price is stale, the trade is refused. Refusal is the failure mode everywhere, so a stalled feed stops the bot instead of letting it trade on a number that no longer holds.
What happens if Nevarn's decision service goes down?
Trades are refused. Every live buy order in the gated lane needs an explicit proceed ruling from Decionis, a separate execution authority; if that authority cannot be reached, the order is not placed. An outage stops trading rather than removing the guardrail.
Can Nevarn's trading record be verified independently?
Yes. Since March 2026 the trading wallet has made 119 trades (87 buys, 32 sells) across 29 markets, each a confirmed transaction on the public blockchain; the most recent was on 18 July 2026 (counted 1 Nov 2026). It still holds nine positions, all on markets that have resolved and await redemption; none is on a live market. Anyone can check them on the public blockchain, or on the wallet's Polymarket profile, without Nevarn's cooperation. That trade count, not an internal volume figure, is the number Nevarn publishes.